India-Sri Lanka: the most significant match of the World Cup(ASHIS RAY'S ANALYSI : International

By Ashis Ray

Port of Spain (Trinidad) March 22 -It's plain and simple. If India beat Sri Lanka on Friday, these two teams will qualify for the Super Eight. In other words, if this were to happen, it would be realistically impossible for Bangladesh to surpass either on net run rate.

The calculations now are, Sri Lanka have a net run rate (the run rate for deducted by the run rate against) of 4.49; India's is 2.51; while Bangladesh rather lag behind at -2.00 (minus two). In the unlikely event of Bangladesh scoring, for instance, 350 against Bermuda and the latter being bowled out for, say, 100, the Bangladeshis would still have a net rate no better than 0.34, or, in effect, far below either Sri Lanka or India. Bangladesh's only hope of progressing to the next stage lies in India losing to Sri Lanka on Friday and, of course, in defeating Bermuda on Sunday.

It was a completely contrasting Bangladeshi side that turned up for Wednesday's game against Sri Lanka as compared to the one that took the field on Saturday versus India. The capitulation to Sri Lanka only confirmed that, while the Bangladeshis are steadily improving and are capable of upsetting the best on their day, they are yet to be instilled with the capacity to implement this on a regular basis. Indeed, under pressure to live up to their new label of giant-killers, they wholly disintegrated.

Bowling conditions on Wednesday were no less helpful to swing and seam movement than they were on Saturday. Indeed, if anything the bounce was greater than on the previous occasion. But Mashrafe Mortaza could hardly deviate the ball, while Syed Rasel consistently bowled an incorrect, leg stump line. It might be argued that the Bangladeshis were a medium pacer short; but then, so were they against India.

The purchase that left-arm spinner, Abdur Razzak obtained in the India match, was non-existent in the face of Sri Lanka, though the experienced Mohammad Rafique, of the same variety, more or less held his own.

Besides, the safe hands that showed up against India were absent against Sri Lanka. Had Bangladesh capitalised on the run out chances and accepted their catches, it might have been a closer contest. But then, they have rarely in the past distinguished themselves with their fielding. Their display against India was, therefore, an exception rather than the rule.

To cap it all, they batted like minnows, a description they are sensitive to and are anxious to shed. Bangladesh's victories since 1999 over Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia and now for a second time at the expense of India are all laudable; but these still do not make them routinely competitive at the highest one-day level, let alone in the test strata.

As for India, the evidence that emerged from Sri Lanka's annihilation of Bangladesh is that the South Asian island state have a world class performer in medium pacer in Chaminda Vaas (the highest wicket-taker in any one World Cup with 23 scalps in 2003) - and accuracy is invariably an asset in limited overs cricket - and a slightly expensive, but incisive force in Lasith Malinga's extra pace. Muttiah Muralitharan cannot be underestimated either, though he was somewhat less impressive against Bangladesh.

Admittedly, India have won eight of the last 10 decided ODIs between the two sides. But they count for little, just as much as the warm-up fixtures are water down the Caribbean Sea. Friday is a new dawn, a new day. India's batting strength on paper has to deliver in practice and the Indians' bowling has to fire on all cylinders, if they are to eclipse the Sri Lankans.

The Indian bowlers' lack of response against the boldness of the Bangladeshi batsmen mirrored an inability to think on their feet. Anil Kumble should to a certain extent succeed in plugging this lacuna. But the others have to equally contribute, if the Sri Lankan batters are to be contained.

Kumar Sangakkara is the danger man for India, for he is technically the most proficient. But the rest are no less dangerous in a one-day scenario, while the option of Marvan Attapatu, yet to be utilised in this World Cup, is always there.

Quite simply, what's about to unfold before cricket lovers the world over is the most significant match in the most competitive group in the current World Cup.

(Ashis Ray is author of the recently launched 'One-Day Cricket: The Indian Challenge' (Harper Collins), which can be bought online on www.ians.in)